S&P500 Breakout & The Ambiguity of Stock Value

Global Macro Monitor

Today has to be the least appreciated breakout that’s ever happened.   Tonight’s Fast Money crowd, for example, described it as the long awaited blow-off top.  You know, the same guy that has been wrong for the last 600 S&P points and is now trying to get the last 50 points correct.

We don’t know if equities are blowing off or not.   Are we scared?  We’re always scared.

What we do know is the market is moving higher;  volatility is collapsing;  the S&P500 moved, with gusto, to new post crash highs today;  and everyone most are still nervous about the macro swans of Christmas past.

So where is fair value on the S&P500?   Don’t know.

We’ll get bearish and short when the market lets us know when it’s time to be bearish.  A quick reversal of today’s gains could do that, for example.  We’ve missed too many moves because the…

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